Sithdragon13 wrote:
With the pairings that take place, i wouldnt bet on that. Quite, honestly, i am betting that most of the top 16 will be the same people that have been in it from year to year. Skill is just too much of the game. If they all run GOWK then yeah GOWK is going to dominate. I fully expect Gencon to look very similar to the Texas regional with the additions of Vong and NR. Only time will tell.
Then according to you, you should be arguing with anyone who states that want to see tournament results before deciding on a ban, because by your logic, tournament results will not answer the question.
Oh wait, didn't this start because you told us how to interpret those tournament results for not banning?......
I guess (and please don't take offense to the following), coming from someone who has had intimate knowledge of playing at Gencon in this tournament for 4 years (2009 is my 5th), its never been like this.
In 2005, I had 3 different 100pt squads built, ended up running my new Universe pieces because Vader JH was so much fun, but never thought I had to run X to compete.
In 2006, no one knew of my squad, outside of those who I had talked to. I had very little worry of people being prepared for it. In fact, other than Matt running Exar, I don't remember playing any squad that was built with B&B in mind (even Deri's towed Boba wasn't a great counter, simply a case where he outplayed me in the friday tournament finals).
In 2007, Deri, Matt and Tim can attest to this. I decided on which squad to run at about 11-12 PM friday night at the bar. I had 5-6 squads in mind, narrowed that down to 3 prior to friday, and ended up picking my favorite friday night. I did not choose it because of its superior strength. I even remember saying to them, "I feel like I could do just as well with X, Y, Z" and they all pretty much agreed.
In 2008, I actually thought pre-Gencon, that the power of Speedy Cannon was less pronounced than the Han Cannon I ran in the previous year. I remember telling Dean, I decided to run it, because I figured it was the last tournament I could probably get away with running Han Scoundrel in, and I enjoy the squad. Dean and Matt can attest, it was not chosen because of superior strength. In fact, up until the Masters, Matt had gone 1-3, 2-2, 1-3, and 2-2 with Speedy Cannon in 4 different tournaments in preparation. I guess the squad suddenly got better that day. I also felt I could have run San Hill (shooters or DT), Loda, NR, a couple of MTB builds, Dodonna squads, or Mandos and competed quite well. I did not ever think that Speedy Cannon had an 80-20% odds of winning a given match up against any of the other top level squad designs.
The good players will play GOWK. You can be as dismissive about that as a determining factor as you want, but you can't have it both ways.
I agree with you that the top 16 will have mostly familiar faces. All that says is that the top players are more skilled than those behind them, well duh. They also won't take the chance of not running GOWK in the one big tournament of the year when it boils right down to it, and will play GOWK.